A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
